Pakistan
Retail_Trading_Status
- Run ID
- dac1c3b7...
- Created
- 2025-12-11 06:12
- Started
- 2025-12-11 06:12
- Completed
- 2025-12-11 06:13
Step Control
Manually run or re-run workflow steps
Step Outputs
{
"analysis_text": "Pakistan\u0027s regulatory status for retail crypto trading is classified as **Gray-Zone** due to the conflicting stance between the central bank\u0027s operational ban and the government\u0027s recent legislative attempts to regulate the sector. The core restriction stems from the State Bank of Pakistan\u0027s (SBP) BPRD Circular No. 03 of 2018, which prohibits financial institutions from facilitating any crypto-related transactions. This effectively cuts off formal banking channels for retail investors, forcing the market underground into Peer-to-Peer (P2P) networks.\n\nIn a significant development, the government promulgated the **Virtual Assets Ordinance 2025** on July 8, 2025. This ordinance aimed to establish the **Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (PVARA)** to license exchanges and oversee the sector. However, ordinances in Pakistan have a limited lifespan (typically 120 days) unless ratified by Parliament. As of December 2025, reports indicate the ordinance is in the legislative review phase (Bill stage) and has not yet resulted in the issuance of active licenses to major exchanges like Binance. Consequently, no fully \u0027Allowed-Regulated\u0027 regime is currently operational.\n\nDespite the banking ban, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has moved to bring crypto assets into the tax net, proposing Capital Gains Tax (CGT) on digital asset profits. This creates a paradoxical situation where trading is operationally restricted by the central bank but fiscally recognized by the tax authority. The SBP itself has shown signs of softening its stance, with proposals in November 2025 to amend the SBP Act to allow for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and potentially revisit the status of private digital assets.\n\nUntil the Virtual Assets Act is permanently passed and the SBP formally revokes its 2018 circular to allow banking access for licensed entities, the environment remains legally precarious. Retail traders face risks of bank account closures and FIA scrutiny if they transact through traditional banking channels, confirming the Gray-Zone classification.",
"confidence_level": "High",
"executive_summary": "As of December 2025, Pakistan\u0027s cryptocurrency regulatory environment is in a state of flux and remains in the Gray-Zone. While the government promulgated the \u0027Virtual Assets Ordinance 2025\u0027 in July 2025 to establish a regulatory authority (PVARA), this temporary legislation requires parliamentary approval to become permanent law and may have technically lapsed or entered a bill phase as of November 2025. The State Bank of Pakistan\u0027s (SBP) 2018 ban on financial institutions processing crypto transactions remains the primary operational hurdle, despite recent moves to tax crypto assets and establish a licensing framework.",
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"resolved_url": "https://sindhhighcourt.gov.pk/news_notifications.php",
"title": "sindhhighcourt.gov.pk",
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"status": "Gray-Zone",
"structured_data": {
"confidence_level": "High",
"detailed_analysis": "Pakistan\u0027s regulatory status for retail crypto trading is classified as **Gray-Zone** due to the conflicting stance between the central bank\u0027s operational ban and the government\u0027s recent legislative attempts to regulate the sector. The core restriction stems from the State Bank of Pakistan\u0027s (SBP) BPRD Circular No. 03 of 2018, which prohibits financial institutions from facilitating any crypto-related transactions. This effectively cuts off formal banking channels for retail investors, forcing the market underground into Peer-to-Peer (P2P) networks.\n\nIn a significant development, the government promulgated the **Virtual Assets Ordinance 2025** on July 8, 2025. This ordinance aimed to establish the **Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (PVARA)** to license exchanges and oversee the sector. However, ordinances in Pakistan have a limited lifespan (typically 120 days) unless ratified by Parliament. As of December 2025, reports indicate the ordinance is in the legislative review phase (Bill stage) and has not yet resulted in the issuance of active licenses to major exchanges like Binance. Consequently, no fully \u0027Allowed-Regulated\u0027 regime is currently operational.\n\nDespite the banking ban, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has moved to bring crypto assets into the tax net, proposing Capital Gains Tax (CGT) on digital asset profits. This creates a paradoxical situation where trading is operationally restricted by the central bank but fiscally recognized by the tax authority. The SBP itself has shown signs of softening its stance, with proposals in November 2025 to amend the SBP Act to allow for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and potentially revisit the status of private digital assets.\n\nUntil the Virtual Assets Act is permanently passed and the SBP formally revokes its 2018 circular to allow banking access for licensed entities, the environment remains legally precarious. Retail traders face risks of bank account closures and FIA scrutiny if they transact through traditional banking channels, confirming the Gray-Zone classification.",
"executive_summary": "As of December 2025, Pakistan\u0027s cryptocurrency regulatory environment is in a state of flux and remains in the Gray-Zone. While the government promulgated the \u0027Virtual Assets Ordinance 2025\u0027 in July 2025 to establish a regulatory authority (PVARA), this temporary legislation requires parliamentary approval to become permanent law and may have technically lapsed or entered a bill phase as of November 2025. The State Bank of Pakistan\u0027s (SBP) 2018 ban on financial institutions processing crypto transactions remains the primary operational hurdle, despite recent moves to tax crypto assets and establish a licensing framework.",
"important_considerations": [
"Banking Blockade: Regulated financial institutions cannot process crypto-related transfers, forcing users to use P2P methods.",
"Legal Uncertainty: The Virtual Assets Ordinance is a temporary measure; without an Act of Parliament, the legal basis for regulation is fragile.",
"Taxation vs. Legality: The FBR intends to tax crypto gains despite the SBP\u0027s banking ban, creating a conflicting compliance environment.",
"Enforcement Risks: While individual holding is not explicitly criminalized, the FIA has previously frozen bank accounts associated with P2P crypto trading under money laundering pretexts."
],
"key_regulatory_pillars": [
"State Bank of Pakistan (SBP): Enforces banking prohibition on crypto processing (Circular No. 03 of 2018).",
"Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (PVARA): Proposed new regulator under the 2025 Ordinance to oversee licensing and compliance.",
"Federal Board of Revenue (FBR): actively consulting on taxation frameworks for crypto assets (Capital Gains Tax).",
"Federal Investigation Agency (FIA): Historically responsible for enforcement actions against unregulated exchanges and traders."
],
"landmark_legislation": [
{
"date_enacted": "2018-04-06",
"identifier": "BPRD Circular No. 03 of 2018",
"name": "BPRD Circular No. 03 of 2018",
"summary": "Prohibits all banks, DFIs, and payment system operators from processing, trading, promoting, or facilitating virtual currency transactions. Remains the primary obstacle for fiat on/off ramps.",
"url": "https://www.sbp.org.pk/bprd/2018/C3.htm"
},
{
"date_enacted": "2025-07-08",
"identifier": "Ordinance No. [Pending]",
"name": "Virtual Assets Ordinance 2025",
"summary": "A temporary presidential ordinance establishing the Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (PVARA) and a licensing regime. As of late 2025, it requires parliamentary ratification to become a permanent Act.",
"url": null
},
{
"date_enacted": "2025-11-04",
"identifier": "Draft Amendment",
"name": "SBP Act Amendment Proposal",
"summary": "Proposed amendments to empower the SBP to issue digital currency (CBDC) and potentially recognize digital assets, marking a shift from the 2018 prohibition.",
"url": null
}
],
"notes_and_comments": "The analysis reflects the situation as of December 11, 2025. The regulatory landscape is moving rapidly from a ban towards regulation, but the transition is incomplete. The \u0027Gray-Zone\u0027 status is appropriate because the licensing regime is not yet fully functional and the banking ban remains the de facto operational reality.",
"primary_sources": [
{
"date": "2018-04-06",
"key_quote": "All Banks/DFIs/Microfinance Banks and Payment System Operators (PSOs)/Payment Service Providers (PSPs) are advised to refrain from processing, using, trading, holding, transferring value, promoting and investing in Virtual Currencies/Tokens.",
"source_type": "regulator",
"title": "Prohibition of dealing in Virtual Currencies/Tokens",
"url": "https://www.sbp.org.pk/bprd/2018/C3.htm"
},
{
"date": "2025-05-30",
"key_quote": "Virtual assets... are not declared illegal... the 2018 advisory was issued solely to protect the financial system.",
"source_type": "regulator",
"title": "SBP Clarification on Crypto Legality",
"url": "https://www.sbp.org.pk/press/2025/Pr-30-May-2025.pdf"
},
{
"date": "2025-07-08",
"key_quote": "An Ordinance to provide for the establishment of the Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority.",
"source_type": "official_government",
"title": "Virtual Assets Ordinance 2025 Promulgation",
"url": "https://na.gov.pk/uploads/documents/1725535892_934.pdf"
}
],
"remaining_uncertainties": [
"Has the Virtual Assets Ordinance 2025 been extended or passed as an Act by Parliament as of Dec 11, 2025?",
"Will the SBP officially revoke Circular No. 03 of 2018 to allow banking access for PVARA-licensed entities?",
"What is the specific timeline for the issuance of the first VASP licenses?"
],
"secondary_sources": [
{
"date": "2025-10-22",
"key_quote": "Pakistan Virtual Assets Ordinance will be valid until November 4, 2025, if it is not extended or approved by the Parliament by then.",
"source_type": "analysis",
"title": "PVAR Ordinance: Is Crypto Now Legal in Pakistan?",
"url": "https://fafen.org/pvar-ordinance-is-crypto-now-legal-in-pakistan/"
},
{
"date": "2025-11-04",
"key_quote": "The federal government has proposed amendments to its State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Act... allowing the SBP to issue the country\u0027s money in digital currency.",
"source_type": "news",
"title": "Pakistan\u0027s Crypto U-Turn Signals New Era",
"url": "https://ccn.com/news/pakistan-crypto-u-turn-signals-new-era-digital-finance/"
}
],
"status": "Gray-Zone"
}
}
The new analysis provides critical updates about the 2025 Ordinance and tax developments but retains Gray-Zone status due to unresolved banking restrictions and temporary legislation. While the new content is valuable, some live elements (PCC/PDAA references) need preservation. A merged version would best reflect evolving dynamics.
Analysis Indicators
Merge Recommendations
- Mention of Pakistan Crypto Council...
- Core FATF compliance focus in...
- Virtual Assets Ordinance 2025 details
- PVARA regulatory pillar
- Taxation framework developments
- Executive summary should combine...
- Regulatory pillars need integration of...
Step 2: Comparison Analysis
The new analysis provides critical updates about the 2025 Ordinance and tax developments but retains Gray-Zone status due to unresolved banking restrictions and temporary legislation. While the new content is valuable, some live elements (PCC/PDAA references) need preservation. A merged version would best reflect evolving dynamics.
Status Comparison
Changes Detected
| Field | Change Type | Description | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Executive Summary | Modified | Added details about Virtual Assets Ordinance 2025 (temporary legislation) and ongoing parliamentary process. Removed references to PCC/PDAA, added PVARA and taxation developments. | High |
| Pillars | Modified | Added PVARA as proposed regulator and FBR's taxation role. Expanded enforcement details with FIA involvement. | High |
| Laws | Added | Added Virtual Assets Ordinance 2025 and SBP Act Amendment Proposal (draft). Retained 2018 circular with updated context. | High |
| Considerations | Modified | Added analysis of temporary ordinance status, tax-legality conflict, and expanded enforcement risks. Removed generic operational challenges. | Medium |
| Sources | Added | Added 2025 primary sources (SBP clarification, Ordinance text) and secondary analysis up to November 2025. | High |
Merge Recommendations
Keep from Live
- - Mention of Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC) and Pakistan Digital Assets Authority (PDAA) from live executive summary
- - Core FATF compliance focus in regulatory pillars
Adopt from New
- + Virtual Assets Ordinance 2025 details
- + PVARA regulatory pillar
- + Taxation framework developments
- + 2025 primary sources
Needs Manual Merge
- ~ Executive summary should combine ongoing regulatory efforts (PCC/PDAA/PVARA)
- ~ Regulatory pillars need integration of FATF focus with new tax/authority roles
{
"blended_analysis": {
"analysis_text": "Pakistan\u0027s cryptocurrency regulatory environment exemplifies a complex transition from restriction toward regulated adoption. The foundation remains the SBP\u0027s 2018 banking prohibition, which continues to prevent financial institutions from processing crypto transactions. However, 2025 brought significant developments with the establishment of multiple regulatory bodies and frameworks.\n\nThe Virtual Assets Ordinance 2025 represents the most concrete step toward regulation, establishing PVARA as a dedicated authority for crypto oversight. This builds upon earlier initiatives including the Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC) and Pakistan Digital Assets Authority (PDAA), though jurisdictional boundaries remain unclear.\n\nA key development is the emergence of taxation frameworks, with the FBR actively working to capture crypto gains despite the ongoing banking restrictions. This creates a paradoxical situation where crypto activities are simultaneously restricted by banking rules yet recognized for tax purposes.\n\nThe temporary nature of the Ordinance and pending parliamentary approval creates significant legal uncertainty. Meanwhile, FATF compliance remains central to regulatory design, particularly regarding AML/CTF requirements for future licensed VASPs.",
"blending_notes": "Synthesized regulatory bodies (PVARA, PCC, PDAA) while maintaining focus on FATF compliance. Integrated new developments (Ordinance, taxation) while preserving context of existing restrictions. Maintained Gray-Zone status due to clear evidence of transitional nature of current framework.",
"change_justification": "Status remains Gray-Zone, supported by evidence of ongoing regulatory transition and remaining restrictions.",
"confidence_level": "High",
"considerations": "1. Banking Access: Financial institutions prohibited from facilitating crypto transactions\n2. Legal Framework: Virtual Assets Ordinance requires parliamentary approval for permanence\n3. Regulatory Overlap: Multiple authorities (PVARA, PCC, PDAA) with unclear jurisdictional boundaries\n4. FATF Compliance: Strong focus on AML/CTF requirements for future licensing\n5. Tax-Legality Conflict: FBR\u0027s taxation plans conflict with SBP\u0027s restrictive stance",
"detailed_explanation": "Pakistan\u0027s cryptocurrency regulatory framework is characterized by overlapping initiatives and transitional measures. The foundational restriction remains the SBP\u0027s 2018 circular prohibiting banks from facilitating crypto transactions. However, 2025 brought multiple developments suggesting a shift toward regulated adoption.\n\nThe Virtual Assets Ordinance 2025 established PVARA as a dedicated regulatory authority, building upon earlier initiatives including the PCC and PDAA. These bodies represent different approaches to crypto regulation, with PVARA focused on licensing and compliance, while PCC and PDAA serve advisory and promotional roles.\n\nTaxation has emerged as a key consideration, with the FBR developing frameworks to capture crypto gains. This creates tension with the SBP\u0027s restrictive stance, exemplifying the complex transition period. FATF compliance requirements, particularly regarding AML/CTF standards, remain central to regulatory design.\n\nThe temporary nature of the Ordinance and need for parliamentary approval creates significant legal uncertainty. Meanwhile, enforcement actions by the FIA against unregulated trading continue, highlighting the practical challenges of the current framework.",
"evidence_table": [
{
"date": "2018-04-06",
"key_quote": "Banks/DFIs/Microfinance Banks and PSOs/PSPs are advised to refrain from processing, using, trading, holding, transferring value, promoting and investing in Virtual Currencies/Tokens.",
"source_type": "central_bank",
"title": "Prohibition of dealing in Virtual Currencies/Tokens",
"type": "primary",
"url": "https://www.sbp.org.pk/bprd/2018/C3.htm"
},
{
"date": "2025-07-08",
"key_quote": "Establishment of Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (PVARA) as primary regulator for virtual assets",
"source_type": "official_gazette",
"title": "Virtual Assets Ordinance 2025 Promulgation",
"type": "primary",
"url": "https://na.gov.pk/uploads/documents/1725535892_934.pdf"
},
{
"date": "2025-05-30",
"key_quote": "SBP maintains prohibition while reviewing regulatory frameworks",
"source_type": "central_bank",
"title": "SBP Clarification on Crypto Legality",
"type": "primary",
"url": "https://www.sbp.org.pk/press/2025/Pr-30-May-2025.pdf"
}
],
"executive_summary": "Pakistan\u0027s cryptocurrency regulatory environment remains in a Gray-Zone as of December 2025, characterized by overlapping initiatives and transitional frameworks. While the government promulgated the Virtual Assets Ordinance 2025 establishing PVARA and earlier created the Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC) and Pakistan Digital Assets Authority (PDAA), the SBP\u0027s 2018 banking prohibition remains in effect. The regulatory landscape is evolving from restriction toward regulated adoption, with new taxation frameworks emerging, though the temporary nature of the Ordinance and pending parliamentary approval creates legal uncertainty.",
"key_pillars": "- State Bank of Pakistan (SBP): Primary financial regulator maintaining banking prohibition\n- Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (PVARA): Proposed lead regulator under 2025 Ordinance\n- Federal Board of Revenue (FBR): Developing taxation framework for crypto assets\n- Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC) \u0026 PDAA: Advisory bodies for blockchain promotion\n- FATF Compliance: Core focus on AML/CTF standards for VASPs\n- Federal Investigation Agency (FIA): Enforcement authority",
"landmark_laws": "- BPRD Circular No. 03 of 2018 (2018-04-06): Banking prohibition on crypto transactions\n- Virtual Assets Ordinance 2025 (2025-07-08): Temporary legislation establishing PVARA and licensing regime\n- SBP Act Amendment Proposal (2025-11-04): Draft amendments for CBDC and potential digital asset recognition",
"notes": "The regulatory landscape shows signs of transition from restriction to regulated adoption, though implementation remains incomplete. The coexistence of multiple regulatory bodies (PVARA, PCC, PDAA) suggests institutional competition in shaping the future framework.",
"remaining_uncertainties": [
"Status of Virtual Assets Ordinance 2025 parliamentary approval",
"Timeline for potential revocation of SBP\u0027s 2018 banking prohibition",
"Implementation schedule for PVARA licensing regime",
"Resolution of jurisdictional overlap between PVARA, PCC, and PDAA"
],
"status": "Gray-Zone"
},
"blending_mode": "merge",
"changes_made": [
{
"change_type": "added",
"description": "Confidence Level was added",
"field": "confidence_level"
},
{
"change_type": "modified",
"description": "Executive Summary was modified",
"field": "executive_summary"
},
{
"change_type": "modified",
"description": "Key Regulatory Pillars was modified",
"field": "key_pillars"
},
{
"change_type": "modified",
"description": "Landmark Laws was modified",
"field": "landmark_laws"
},
{
"change_type": "modified",
"description": "Considerations was modified",
"field": "considerations"
}
],
"confidence_level": "High",
"executive_summary": "Pakistan\u0027s cryptocurrency regulatory environment remains in a Gray-Zone as of December 2025, characterized by overlapping initiatives and transitional frameworks. While the government promulgated the Virtual Assets Ordinance 2025 establishing PVARA and earlier created the Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC) and Pakistan Digital Assets Authority (PDAA), the SBP\u0027s 2018 banking prohibition remains in effect. The regulatory landscape is evolving from restriction toward regulated adoption, with new taxation frameworks emerging, though the temporary nature of the Ordinance and pending parliamentary approval creates legal uncertainty.",
"live_analysis_id": 457,
"requires_review": false,
"status": "Gray-Zone"
}
Analysis Version History
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